11. Towards abundant democracy

This page contains the opening portion of Chapter 11 from
Sustainable Superabundance: A universal transhumanist invitation

tam graphic 11

11. Towards abundant democracy

Over the next few years, many hard decisions need to be taken. These decisions will determine whether humanity can move forwards swiftly into the era of sustainable superabundance, or will instead collapse into a state of social chaos and humanitarian tragedy.

Examples of these hard decisions can be found throughout the preceding pages of this Invitation. Consider: Which aspects of human nature should be changed, and which protected at all costs? In which circumstances should the precautionary principle override the proactionary principle? Which types of genetic modifications should be encouraged, and which discouraged – in food, in pets, and in humans? Which sources of energy (for example, nuclear energy?) should be developed and deployed most quickly? How much public funding should be allocated to the development of atomically precise nanofactories – and with what constraints? Which approaches to curing diseases of neurodegeneration should be prioritised? What restrictions should be applied to autonomous lethal weapons systems? How can surveillance of potential dangerous misuse of technology best coexist with protections for individual privacy? What kind of new social contract should be put in place – and how strongly should UBI feature in these plans? Which kinds of inequality and diversity should be celebrated, and which resisted? How can the various regulatory systems from different local markets be woven together into an effective international framework that prevents rogue elements from slipping dangerous goods and services through the cracks between these agreements? Which international alliances deserve greater support, and which should be avoided? And so on.

This chapter is not seeking immediate answers to these questions. Instead, it is seeking to understand what processes we should follow, in order to find and defend the best answers to this kind of question.

These questions are all examples where disagreements arise between thoughtful, well intentioned advocates of different answers. The right answers are by no means obvious.

These questions are all examples, moreover, where the discussion is subject to deliberate distortion, by groups who have vested interests in steering the outcome in particular directions. That is, on top of the legitimate debate, a set of intentionally misleading arguments further undermines the ability of society to pick the best solution.

With sky-high stakes, it’s critically important that cool heads can prevail. It’s critically important that key flaws in reasoning are identified promptly, before decisions are taken based on these flaws. And it’s critically important that the best insights of the whole community are heard and absorbed.

With sky-high stakes, there’s a great opportunity to use technology to improve the calibre of decisions, and to ensure that good decisions are properly followed through. But there’s also a grave risk for technology to worsen the calibre of decisions. Technology gives obstructionists more power to frustrate attempts by enlightened leaders to implement good decisions. It also gives self-serving leadership cabals more power to stick with their bad decisions despite objections from informed opposition.

In other words, technology raises the stakes even higher. Technology could enable the emergence of a superdemocracy, that will steer humanity more reliably towards the era of sustainable superabundance. But at the same time, technology could drive decision-making backwards. Rather than us moving towards collective enlightenment, technology could cause us to move towards collective confusion and collective impotence.

As this chapter highlights, the key task is to step forwards incrementally, gradually building improved capacity for a better politics. Out of these incremental improvements, an abundance of collaboration and democracy can emerge.

Two scenarios for the impact of technology

Alas, twenty-first century technology can have all kinds of detrimental impact on politics.

Twenty-first century technology enables unprecedented large scale surveillance and manipulation of members of society by forces seeking undue influence. This manipulation can be subtle rather than blatant. That’s what gives it greater power.

Twenty-first century technology strengthens those who would wield black-art psychological techniques to frighten or incite people into making choices that are different from their actual best interests.

Similar technology has been adopted by social media companies. These companies desire to increase eyeball and click-through attention. The result is algorithms that raise the visibility of social media posts that push people into emotional reactions rather than careful deliberation. With hearts on fire, smoke gets in the eyes. With emotions inflamed, online interactions frequently propel participants to champion tribal instincts. With a heightened sense of the importance of group identity, participants cheer on pro-group “blue lies” rather than respecting objective analysis.

And there’s another way that new technology can destabilise the political landscape. It is increasingly widely understood that enemy states, terrorist groups, or miscellaneous agents of aggression, could unleash potentially devastating attacks using cyber-sabotage, fast-spreading nerve agents, or various other weapons of mass destruction. The threat of a sudden near-apocalyptic attack constricts the mind. With tensions so high, the risk is that politicians will be driven towards decisions that are more extreme and less considered. The risk is that, in grasping for the upper hand in a landscape fraught with potential surprise attacks, politicians will unintentionally blunder into making an ill-advised first strike that in turn precipitates enormous counterstrikes.

But the same technology can have beneficial impacts on politics too.

In an extension to current technology that highlights misspellings or incorrect grammar in a document, new tools can highlight which factual claims have been assessed as false or misleading. Other tools can highlight logical flaws in arguments. They can also draw attention to cases where the provenance of data is suspect – such as when photographs have been edited, or videos synthesised, to give a false impression.

Twenty-first century technology can facilitate the systematic collection and analysis of information relevant to decisions, in ways that build on the successes of Wikipedia.

By analysing arguments, technology can in due course suggest new proposals that integrate different perspectives in compelling ways, and thereby help build bridges between opposing sides in a debate.

Technology can create and maintain vast virtual worlds – simulated environments – in which the potential outcomes of policy changes can be investigated in advance.

Finally, technology can assist politicians to deliberate more calmly on decisions, rather than being panicked into flawed decisions in tired or emotive circumstances.

In short, just as technology can have either a bad or good influence on society, so also it can have either a bad or a good influence on politics.

In both cases, the determining factor is the level of wisdom, strength, and agility brought to managing the technology. The more powerful technology becomes, the greater the need for wisdom, strength, and agility – the greater the need for clear thinking, and the greater the need to be ready to set aside previously long-cherished “instincts” or “identities”.


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RAFT 2035 – a new initiative for a new decade

The need for a better politics is more pressing than ever.

Since its formation, Transpolitica has run a number of different projects aimed at building momentum behind a technoprogressive vision for a better politics. For a new decade, it’s time to take a different approach, to build on previous initiatives.

The planned new vehicle has the name “RAFT 2035”.

RAFT is an acronym:

  • Roadmap (‘R’) – not just a lofty aspiration, but specific steps and interim targets
  • towards Abundance (‘A’) for all – beyond a world of scarcity and conflict
  • enabling Flourishing (‘F’) as never before – with life containing not just possessions, but enriched experiences, creativity, and meaning
  • via Transcendence (‘T’) – since we won’t be able to make progress by staying as we are.

RAFT is also a metaphor. Here’s a copy of the explanation:

When turbulent waters are bearing down fast, it’s very helpful to have a sturdy raft at hand.

The fifteen years from 2020 to 2035 could be the most turbulent of human history. Revolutions are gathering pace in four overlapping fields of technology: nanotech, biotech, infotech, and cognotech, or NBIC for short. In combination, these NBIC revolutions offer enormous new possibilities – enormous opportunities and enormous risks:…

Rapid technological change tends to provoke a turbulent social reaction. Old certainties fade. New winners arrive on the scene, flaunting their power, and upturning previous networks of relationships. Within the general public, a sense of alienation and disruption mingles with a sense of profound possibility. Fear and hope jostle each other. Whilst some social metrics indicate major progress, others indicate major setbacks. The claim “You’ve never had it so good” coexists with the counterclaim “It’s going to be worse than ever”. To add to the bewilderment, there seems to be lots of evidence confirming both views.

The greater the pace of change, the more intense the dislocation. Due to the increased scale, speed, and global nature of the ongoing NBIC revolutions, the disruptions that followed in the wake of previous industrial revolutions – seismic though they were – are likely to be dwarfed in comparison to what lies ahead.

Turbulent times require a space for shelter and reflection, clear navigational vision despite the mists of uncertainty, and a powerful engine for us to pursue our own direction, rather than just being carried along by forces outside our control. In short, turbulent times require a powerful “raft” – a roadmap to a future in which the extraordinary powers latent in NBIC technologies are used to raise humanity to new levels of flourishing, rather than driving us over some dreadful precipice.

The words just quoted come from the opening page of a short book that is envisioned to be published in January 2020. The chapters of this book are reworked versions of the scripts used in the recent “Technoprogressive roadmap” series of videos.

Over the next couple of weeks, all the chapters of this proposed book will be made available for review and comment:

  • As pages on the Transpolitica website, starting here
  • As shared Google documents, starting here, where comments and suggestions are welcome.

RAFT Cover 21

All being well, RAFT 2035 will also become a conference, held sometime around the middle of 2020.

You may note that, in that way that RAFT 2035 is presented to the world,

  • The word “transhumanist” has moved into the background – since that word tends to provoke many hostile reactions
  • The word “technoprogressive” also takes a backseat – since, again, that word has negative connotations in at least some circles.

If you like the basic idea of what’s being proposed, here’s how you can help:

  • Read some of the content that is already available, and provide comments
    • If you notice something that seems mistaken, or difficult to understand
    • If you think there is a gap that should be addressed
    • If you think there’s a better way to express something.

Thanks in anticipation!

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