The Singularity Principles
Steering the adoption of fast-changing technologies
These pages review:
- Why the Singularity Principles are sorely needed;
- The source and design of these principles;
- The significance of the term “Singularity”;
- The content of the Singularity Principles;
- How these principles are expected to evolve;
- How these principles can be put into practice, all around the world;
- The likely outcomes if these principles are followed;
- The likely outcomes if these principles are not followed.
Design
The Singularity Principles are designed:
- To steer humanity’s relationships with fast-changing technologies;
- To manage multiple risks of disaster;
- To enable the attainment of remarkable benefits;
- Thereby, to help humanity approach a profoundly positive singularity.
The formulation of the Singularity Principles draws upon diverse insights from:
- Scientists, technologists, and engineers;
- Entrepreneurs, designers, and artists;
- Humanitarians, activists, and economists;
- Educators, ethicists, and psychologists,
- Philosophers, rationalists, and lawyers;
- Historians, sociologists, and futurists;
- Transhumanists, effective altruists, and singularitarians.
Many of these insights have been expressed and debated at meetings of London Futurists over the years.
The Singularity Principles were first presented, under that name and with the same general format, in Chapter 17, “Singularity”, of the 2021 book Vital Foresight: The Case for Active Transhumanism. That’s the final (culminating) chapter of a 642 page book. The preceding 16 chapters of that book set out the challenges and opportunities that the Principles need to address. They also draw together the underlying ideas that shape the Principles. The Principles are the recommendations that arise from those chains of analysis.
The Principles have evolved since that time and continue to evolve. These pages provide the most up-to-date information.
The applicability of the Principles
To start with, these principles can and should be applied to the anticipation and management of the NBIC technologies that are at the heart of the fourth industrial revolution: nanotech, biotech, infotech, and cognotech – four interlinked technological disruptions which are likely to grow significantly stronger as the 2020s unfold.
However, the same set of principles can and should be applied to the anticipation and management of the core technology that will probably give rise to a fifth industrial revolution, namely the technology of AGI (artificial general intelligence), and the ASI (artificial superintelligence) that will likely follow fast on the footsteps of AGI.
The emergence of ASI is known as the technological singularity – or, more briefly, the Singularity.
In other words, the Singularity Principles apply both:
- To the longer term lead-up to the Singularity, from NBIC technologies,
- And to the shorter-term lead-up to the Singularity, as AI approaches the power of AGI.
In both cases, anticipation and management of possible outcomes will be of vital importance.
The short form of the Principles:
Here’s the short form of the Singularity Principles.
As we develop and interact with increasingly powerful technology, we should be sure we know:
- The goals that we’re hoping to accomplish – rather than us merely drifting along in some direction because it sounds nice, or has some alluring features, or it seemed like a good idea the last time that strategy was reviewed;
- What are the products and methods that are most likely to serve these goals well – rather than us persisting with products or methods that happen to make us feel comfortable, or which have given us some good results in the past;
- How we will manage any surprises arising en route to our goals – rather than us being caught flat-footed as the victim of inertia or denial, when unexpected signals start showing on our radars.
These are important high-level points. But we need to dig deeper into how to apply them. That’s covered in the detailed version of the Principles.
The four areas covered by the Principles
In summary, the Singularity Principles split into four areas:
- Methods to analyse the goals and outcomes that may arise from particular technologies;
- The characteristics that are highly desirable in technological solutions;
- Methods to ensure that development takes place responsibly;
- Evolution and enforcement:
- Principles about how this overall set of recommendations will evolve further over time
- Principles for how to increase the likelihood that these recommendations are applied in practice rather than simply being some kind of wishful thinking.
The principles in each of these four areas have the following names:
- Analysing goals and potential outcomes:
- Question desirability
- Clarify externalities
- Require peer reviews
- Involve multiple perspectives
- Analyse the whole system
- Anticipate fat tails
- Desirable characteristics of technological solutions:
- Reject opacity
- Promote resilience
- Promote verifiability
- Promote auditability
- Clarify risks to users
- Clarify trade-offs
- Ensuring development takes place responsibly:
- Insist on accountability
- Penalise disinformation
- Design for cooperation
- Analyse via simulations
- Maintain human oversight
- Evolution and enforcement:
- Build consensus regarding principles
- Provide incentives to address omissions
- Halt development if principles not upheld
- Consolidate progress via legal frameworks
For more details
Please view the following pages for more information:
(the remaining links will be made live shortly)
- Background: Ten essential observations
- Fast-changing technologies: risks and benefits
- What is the Singularity?
- The question of urgency
- The Singularity Principles in depth:
- Assessing the Principles: strengths and weaknesses
- Implications and open questions
- To AGI or not AGI?
Credits
The graphic illustration on this page includes a design by Pixabay member Ebenezer42.
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