Surveys on AI
Transpolitica surveys on scenarios for the future of AI:
- Round one: “Key open questions about the transition to AGI”, June to August 2023
- Round two: “Anticipating AI in 2030”, September to October 2023
Transpolitica surveys on scenarios for the future of AI:
The need for a better politics is more pressing than ever.
Since its formation, Transpolitica has run a number of different projects aimed at building momentum behind a technoprogressive vision for a better politics. For a new decade, it’s time to take a different approach, to build on previous initiatives.
The planned new vehicle has the name “RAFT 2035”.
RAFT is an acronym:
RAFT is also a metaphor. Here’s a copy of the explanation:
When turbulent waters are bearing down fast, it’s very helpful to have a sturdy raft at hand.
The fifteen years from 2020 to 2035 could be the most turbulent of human history. Revolutions are gathering pace in four overlapping fields of technology: nanotech, biotech, infotech, and cognotech, or NBIC for short. In combination, these NBIC revolutions offer enormous new possibilities – enormous opportunities and enormous risks:…
Rapid technological change tends to provoke a turbulent social reaction. Old certainties fade. New winners arrive on the scene, flaunting their power, and upturning previous networks of relationships. Within the general public, a sense of alienation and disruption mingles with a sense of profound possibility. Fear and hope jostle each other. Whilst some social metrics indicate major progress, others indicate major setbacks. The claim “You’ve never had it so good” coexists with the counterclaim “It’s going to be worse than ever”. To add to the bewilderment, there seems to be lots of evidence confirming both views.
The greater the pace of change, the more intense the dislocation. Due to the increased scale, speed, and global nature of the ongoing NBIC revolutions, the disruptions that followed in the wake of previous industrial revolutions – seismic though they were – are likely to be dwarfed in comparison to what lies ahead.
Turbulent times require a space for shelter and reflection, clear navigational vision despite the mists of uncertainty, and a powerful engine for us to pursue our own direction, rather than just being carried along by forces outside our control. In short, turbulent times require a powerful “raft” – a roadmap to a future in which the extraordinary powers latent in NBIC technologies are used to raise humanity to new levels of flourishing, rather than driving us over some dreadful precipice.
The words just quoted come from the opening page of a short book that is envisioned to be published in January 2020. The chapters of this book are reworked versions of the scripts used in the recent “Technoprogressive roadmap” series of videos.
Over the next couple of weeks, all the chapters of this proposed book will be made available for review and comment:

All being well, RAFT 2035 will also become a conference, held sometime around the middle of 2020.
You may note that, in that way that RAFT 2035 is presented to the world,
If you like the basic idea of what’s being proposed, here’s how you can help:
Thanks in anticipation!